Science meets Sports – A Statistical Way to Better Your Game

In August this year, an article was published where Saksham in Grade 11, who is a tennis player and enthusiast, was the co-author. The article titled ‘The cost of an unforced error in tennis – A statistical approach’ was published in the peer-reviewed journal ITF Coaching and Sport Science Review, which is the official journal of the International Tennis Federation. We contacted Saksham to find out more about the purpose of the research and the article. 

I am truly ecstatic that my article was published in the International Tennis Federation Journal – Saksham, Grade 11

Since Saksham is putting much time and effort into tennis, he though that it would be a good idea to start applying what he learns from subjects at school into the game of tennis. Tennis has sometimes been called “a game of errors”, and Saksham sees an ‘unforced error’ as very important to both understand and correct in tennis. An unforced error means giving away a point where the opponent did not have to do anything; essentially it is one player who gives away a free point. “At different stages in the game – like at set point or a deuce – the cost of an unforced error is different”, says Saksham and explains that one either has to play safe or go big. “In this article, I explored what the mean cost of an unforced error is, focusing on all possible scenarios.”

The purpose of the article was to introduce a scientific way of measuring the cost of an unforced error, to provide a basis for players and coaches to choose strategies among different playing styles based on a statistical approach. “Overall, this research paper was heavily based on mathematical concepts, and since it is one of my favourite subjects, it felt wonderful to be able to see an application of it in tennis”, says Saksham, who found that in a three-set match, one can encounter 2490 possible probabilities. “The collating of data took some time, but we focused on the minimum cost of an unforced error at that particular situation, and analysed the outcomes that could happen if the point went to either player.” 

While it seems that an unforced errors is just a lost point, looking at it closer it, the minimum costs of an unforced error can be as high as 24 or 48 points, while the median is two points. Being aware of the science for different situations, players can adapt their game during the match in a scientific way, and play either more risky or conservatively in different situations. “I feel that since all this knowledge has been shared with the world, strategies of players could change, especially my own, on each point as now I know where I can test my luck as compared to where I am in a must-win situation”, says Saksham and explains that this article might make it easier for coaches world wide to tell their students what should be done in a particular point.

Being published in a reputed peer-reviewed magazine makes Saksham feel proud and ecstatic. “I also feel thankful that I was able to come up with an idea for a research paper that involved tennis and my studies, two things that I focus on so much, yet are so different”, says Saksham, whose article is available to tennis players, coaches and the general public in the ITF Coaching & Sport Science Review.