Estimating real-time impact of sudden economic shocks

TISB’s Grade 11 student, Ayush, took part of the competition YASHK arranged by the ‘Hong Kong Young Academy of Sciences’, where he won second place in the economics category. This was accomplished by what the judging panel called “A novel near real-time system to estimate impact of sudden economic shocks (such as COVID-19) on the economy”, where Ayush was using near earth satellite data.

It allowed me to apply some of the concepts I have learned in school to solve real problems, and at the same time build an even stronger understanding of the fundamentals of the subject – Ayush, Grade 11

At the YASHK competition hosted by the Hong Kong Young Academy of Sciences the aim is to encourage High School students to do their own research into science and technology, and educate and inform the general public on issues related to science and technology. Through his participation in the economics category, Ayush developed a new way to estimate the GDP of a place by using satellite imagery of the earth at night, along with the amount of electricity consumed by the place. This has the potential to help researchers to get GDP estimates much before the official reports are released, and in this way help governments make more proactive decisions.

Ayush joined the competition because of his interest in economics, and looked closer at some of the research papers that were submitted in last years competition, immediately getting interested because of the level and depth of participants’ papers. Ayush says: “I participated to deepen my understanding in a subject of my interest, to make something with real life application, and also hone my research skills. Also, performing research on a subject is quite different from being able to answer questions on a subject, so it was a unique learning experience.”

The competition had three stages and began in mid June 2020. In the first, participants were required to submit their ideas, from which feasible ideas were chosen. Next, Ayush performed the research and wrote a paper detailing the work. Here, teams which performed genuinely novel research were selected after the August deadline. Finally, there was a presentation round, where Ayush summarised his work in a 20 minute presentation in front of all the judges, who asked questions for more details. The final round this year was held online on Zoom on 25 October.

Through images of night time lights, Ayush were able to see the impact of the lockdowns on the economy, for example in the Chinese province of Wuhan. The below images are Wuhan before COVID-19 and during the COVID-19.
 

Wuhan December (Pre-COVID) and Wuhan January (During Strict Lockdown).

“It’s very easy to see the decline in light”, says Ayush “and this relates to the decline in GDP, since the city was shut down with a lockdown”, explaining how night light is a promising data source with lots of possible applications. The experience has given Ayush a great opportunity to get involved in and developing skills and a concrete interest for doing research. “This would help me and other participants as well be better prepared for rigorous research in the future”, says Ayush.